I'm back in Mississippi

And it is just another day at the office, as evidenced by this email I received today:

TO: Mississippi VOAD Board General Membership:


Greetings:

According to the National Weather Service the tropical wave that is
currently dumping copious amounts of rain on the east coast of Florida,
causing flooding in Jacksonville and at least one tornado (last Monday) is
expected to become a surface low by tomorrow morning. The National Weather
Service believes that it is possible that this surface low will move its
way across the Florida peninsula over the next day or two and re-emerge in
the Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs it is possible that a sub-tropical or
tropical cyclone will develop in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. If
this happens, it is possible that this system will develop very rapidly
from a mere surface low to Tropical Depression 10 to Tropical Storm /
Category 1 Hurricane Jerry. Remember that we saw this happen just last
week when a small low pressure system developed into Category 1 Hurricane
Humberto in less than 24 hours. Therefore, it is possible that this system
may (or may not) develop into a storm that could affect the ALM Division by
as early as Friday or sometime this weekend.

According to MEMA, the National Weather Service preliminary reports say
that the area at risk from landfall stretches from Pensacola, Florida, to
Galveston, Texas. Unfortunately, the center of that risk area is the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. At this time, MEMA reports that the six coastal
counties are concerned about the effect of high winds and torrential rains
(flash flooding) on an area largely populated by FEMA trailers at this
time. The coastal counties are currently preparing a total of 23 shelters
in the event they are needed. This is currently a precautionary
preparation; they do not want to be caught by surprise as Texas was as a
result of Hurricane Humberto.

As a result, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) is
tentatively planning to open the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC)
tormorrow, Thursday, September 20, 2007. If it does open, MSVOAD will be
asked to staff its' desk at the SEOC in Pearl.

Finally, it should be noted that there is nothing certain about any of
this. It is possible that this system may dissapate over the Florida
peninsula and never re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico or re-emerge so
weakened that it dissapates there. However, they are concerned enough
about the possible development of this storm that they believe it is
important to alert the appropriate authorities now.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me at
your convenience.

Respectfully,
William H. Feist III
WILLIAM H. FEIST III, WB8BZH, MNCEM, NDCEM
President (2007), Mississippi Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster
(MSVOAD)
Emergency Disaster Services Director
Alabama - Louisiana - Mississippi Division
The Salvation Army, Southern Territory


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MAPS and ADDITIONAL INFORMATION







Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Note: This product is updated at approximately 11:30 AM and 10:30 PM EDT
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information
(Embedded image moved to file: pic13694.gif)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190211
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE GRADUALLY FALLING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTION OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM.

3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

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180
ABNT20 KNHC 191520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN